As America Begins to Return to Work, the Market Gains 3%+
Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 05/27/2020
source: Forbes
The Dow rose 912 points (+3.85%) on Monday (May 18) and held onto that gain, sparked by news of favorable vaccine trials for the coronavirus, which I discussed in my podcast last Monday. There was a lot of short covering in the initial market surge, but moving forward I expect that quality stocks will continue to fare better and should continue to emerge as the “silver lining” in a critical path for investors to follow.
In the meantime, the pressure to reopen state economies remains intense. State jobless rates are highest in tourist destinations like Nevada (28.2%) or Hawaii (22.3%), which has a 14-day mandatory quarantine for all mainland travelers and is expected to maintain travel restrictions through June 30th. Hawaii may be the last state to re-open, as most other states realize they must act soon to recover the tens of millions of jobs that America has lost since early March. I’ll discuss that dilemma more in my column, to the right.
This week, Bryan Perry advocates shorting the fragile oil market, while Gary Alexander writes about the power of growth stocks. Ivan Martchev agrees with Bryan that oil and commodities may fall again, while Jason Bodner updates the 11 sectors and examines how long this market can stay “overbought.”
Over this Memorial Day, all of us at Navellier & Associates thank all who serve and have served America – and also those who treat patients struck by coronavirus – for protecting our freedoms and our health.
A Look Ahead
By Louis Navellier
Jobless Rate Differentials in the 50 States May Impact the Election
Income Mail
By Bryan Perry
Time to Consider Oil a "Terminal Short"?
Growth Mail
By Gary Alexander
Growth is Coming Back - and Growth Stocks Never Died
Global Mail
By Ivan Martchev
2020: The Year of the Bat?
Sector Spotlight
By Jason Bodner
Record-Fast Recovery Makes for Restless Bears
After a Super-Strong April, Could Stocks Correct in May?
Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 05/12/2020
The S&P 500 rose 3.5% last week and NASDAQ is on fire – up 6% last week and now positive for this virus-tainted calendar year. The Dow rose 2.6% last week, rising in four of five days, falling Wednesday.
For more details, here are the links to my Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday podcasts last week.
Tuesday, May 5 (+123.24 Dow points): The market rose on low volume, despite terrible economic news.
Thursday, May 7 (+221.25): Stocks “gapped up” and Treasury yields declined – a powerful combination.
Friday, May 8 (+455.43): The market “melted up” after global markets rose after their economies opened.
I hope you didn’t “sell in May and go away.” May is actually a good seasonal month, and June is even better. This May could be better than average as investors have more time to fund pensions for 2019 taxes, not due until mid-July. The global economy is opening up and the U.S. economy could open up soon.
In my column this week, I’ll uncover some hopeful signs in Friday’s dismal jobs report. Bryan Perry will cover the new work-at-home paradigm, which can boost productivity. Gary Alexander examines America’s unprecedented cash hoard and where we may spend it. Ivan Martchev argues that this “V” shaped stock market recovery is different than the last one, since a rapid earnings or economic recovery may not follow. Jason Bodner sees the market deep in overbought territory now. What does that imply?
A Look Ahead
By Louis Navellier
How Fast Will These "Record Low" Statistics Return to Normal?
Income Mail
By Bryan Perry
Today's "Tale of the Tape" is a Technology-Based "Workplace Paradigm Shift"
Growth Mail
By Gary Alexander
Cash is King - And This King is Scared
Global Mail
By Ivan Martchev
This is a Different Type of "V" Shaped Stock Market Recovery
Sector Spotlight
By Jason Bodner
When Does an "Overbought" Market Become a "Sell" Signal?
The "Zombie Apocalypse" Has Been Postponed (or Canceled?)
Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 04/21/2020
source: Bloomberg
The “Zombie Apocalypse” that many bears have been predicting ran into two problems last week. First, on down days, like Tuesday, the S&P 500’s trading volume was the lightest since February 21st, so if investors are not panicking on down days, we should not panic. Second, better-than-expected earnings from companies like Chipotle Mexican Grill proved that companies with positive results can break out!
Navellier & Associates does own CMG in managed accounts oroursub-advised mutual fund. Louis Navellier and his family own CMG via the sub-advised Mutual Fund.
The market basically fell sharply on Monday and Tuesday but recovered strongly Wednesday and rose well on Friday, too.I recorded multiple podcasts last week that you can hear via these following links:
Monday, April 20 (-592.05 Dow points)
Tuesday, April 21 (-631.56)
Wednesday, April 22 (+456.94)
The big news last week was the shocking collapse of crude oil futures prices, which I’ll cover in my column to the right. Then Bryan Perry argues that the “viral” U.S. market is being fed largely by funds fleeing Europe. Gary Alexander argues for selective business openings, like scientific controlled trials. Ivan Martchev argues for a fairly strong second-half U.S. economic recovery, while Jason Bodner examines the tension between low buying and selling volume and asks: What’s likely to happen next?
A Look Ahead
By Louis Navellier
Commodity Price Deflation and Super-Low Rates Make Stocks Attractive
Income Mail
By Bryan Perry
What to Make Of This "Viral" Stock Market
Growth Mail
By Gary Alexander
Who Will Be the First Brave Business Owner to Open Up Shop?
Global Mail
By Ivan Martchev
It's Often Darkest Before the Dawn
Sector Spotlight
By Jason Bodner
What's Next: Bounce or Bust?
The S&P 500 Rose 3% Last Week (and +31% since March 23)
Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 04/21/2020
The S&P 500 rose 3.04% last week and is now down only 11% year-to-date, as the market seems to see a recovery beginning earlier in the second half than most expected. NASDAQ soared 6.1% last week and is off only 3.6% YTD. The Dow is up 33% in 25 days, including +2.2% last week, but it was an erratic ride, down through Thursday then up 3% Friday. I recorded multiple podcasts you can listen to via these links:
Monday, April 13 (-328.60 Dow points)
Tuesday, April 14 (+554.29)
Wednesday, April 15 (-445.44)
Friday, April 17 (+704.81)
Yesterday, April 20 (-592.05)
As I mentioned on my Tuesday podcast, the good news is that trading volume is higher on “up” days and lighter on “down” days, which I read as being safe to buy growth stocks. Furthermore, dividend stocks have been rallying for four consecutive weeks, now that the Fed is fully controlling Treasury bond yields.
The biggest threat I see now is deflation, as I explain in my column to the right. Our columnists relish the 30% market gains, but in some cases question the rapidity of the rise. Bryan Perry says the data doesn’t yet justify the market’s euphoria. Ivan Martchev uses two national examples to show that, without an economy, pumping in trillions of dollars doesn’t help much. Gary Alexanderreviews a half-dozen of the latest anti-growth books, while Jason Bodner shows how we (especially he) called these market moves.
A Look Ahead
By Louis Navellier
Crude Oil at $18 Highlights Global Deflationary Threat
Income Mail
By Bryan Perry
Reality Check for the Stock Market
Growth Mail
By Gary Alexander
"Growth" is Suddenly a Dirty Word
Global Mail
By Ivan Martchev
One for the Record Books
Sector Spotlight
By Jason Bodner
Tuning Out the Noise in Favor of the Data
March Opens with a Jagged Up & Down Roller-Coaster Ride
Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 03/10/2020
source: Parade
Once again, the market delivered massive and jarring reversals every day last week – up over 1,000 points on Monday and Wednesday and down nearly as much on Tuesday and Thursday – so I recorded podcasts every day last week. I’m trying to calm investors, as these gyrations have happened before (in August 2011, for instance), but the market usually settles down and moves on to higher highs. Ironically, after all this daily volatility, the Dow rose 455 points (+1.8%) last week. Here are the links to my podcasts.
Monday, March 2 (+1293.96 Dow points)
Tuesday, March 3 (-785.91)
Wednesday, March 4 (+1,173.45)
Thursday, March 5 (-969.58)
Friday, March 6 (-256.50)
Monday, March 9 (-2013.76)
My main point in most of these podcasts (see my article, to the right) is that with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to just 0.71% at one point, dividend stocks will now be in high demand, leading the stock market recovery. Bryan Perry thinks we should use these volatile times to make money selling covered calls. Gary Alexander points out that there may be another kind of virus infecting the market today. Ivan Martchev thinks oil could reach the $20s soon, and he also has an interesting theory about coronavirus. Jason Bodner sees the market bottom coming March 20. I’m betting on March 17, when the Fed meets. Either way, the end may be near, so please be patient and don’t let the media scare you into selling stocks.
A Look Ahead
By Louis Navellier
Treasury Yields Fall to New Historic Lows
Income Mail
By Bryan Perry
Selling Covered Calls Is One Income Solution
Growth Mail
By Gary Alexander
Are We Being Scared Senseless?
Global Mail
By Ivan Martchev
With Saudi Help, Oil is Headed into the $20s
Sector Spotlight
By Jason Bodner
History Indicates the Market Could Bottom Around March 20
Monday Market Panics Usually Precede Strong Recoveries
Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 02/25/2020
source: Bloomberg
Last week, I warned you that the market might correct after earnings season wound down. Sure enough, the market finally had a down week (-1.25% in the S&P 500), then a huge Monday selloff of 1,031 Dow points. After setting a new high at 3,392 last Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed at 3,225 on Monday, down 4.91%, including -3.55% on Monday – the 48th biggest one-day drop since SPY began trading in 1993.
The good news is that the market usually bounces back strongly from huge Monday declines. According to Bespoke Investment Group, there have been 18 prior 2%+ drops on Mondays in this bull market (since March 2009), and SPY has risen an average 1.02% the next day (“Turnaround Tuesday”) then +3.16% the next week and +6.08% after a month, with positive returns 17 of 18 times for the next week and month so don’t panic! (For more information, check out my podcast, recorded during Monday’s huge selloff.)
I’ll have more to say about the slowdown in global growth – partly due to the coronavirus panic – in my regular column (to the right). In our other columns, Bryan Perry is very concerned that Beijing may be covering up the worst news about the coronavirus. Gary Alexander then shows how the U.S. economy remains an oasis to the world, although rising federal deficit spending could become a drag over time. Next, Ivan Martchev examines the breakdown of the historical reverse correlation of gold and the U.S. dollar, while Jason Bodner uses the moon’s cycle to show how market cycles follow a similar pattern.
A Look Ahead
By Louis Navellier
Growth Continues to Contract in the Three Biggest Economies Outside the U.S.
Income Mail
By Bryan Perry
Beijing's Bad Behavior Sends a Sobering Message to The World
Growth Mail
By Gary Alexander
The U.S. Economy is "In a Good Place" (Says Jerome Powell)
Global Mail
By Ivan Martchev
The Positive Correlation Between Gold and The Dollar Becomes Weirder and Weirder
Sector Spotlight
By Jason Bodner
Market Cycles Resemble (but don't follow) The Moon's Cycles
February Begins with a 3% (or More) Market Surge
Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 02/11/2020
source: The Economic Times
Last week, many great stocks continued to “melt up” along with the overall stock market. Despite last Friday’s late-day correction, the major indexes rose 3% or more last week, with NASDAQ rising 4%.
On Tuesday, President Trump kicked off his 2020 campaign with his State of the Union speech that promised, “The Best is Yet to Come” (reminiscent of Reagan’s 1984 re-election campaign slogan, “It’s Morning in America”). Naturally, President Trump cited the stock market’s rise, so I think that it is safe to say he will continue to try to bolster the U.S. economy and the stock market in the upcoming months.
I’ll have more to say about the economy (and Tesla) in my article, to the right. Also, Bryan Perry joined me at the Orlando World Money Show last week. He reports on the mood of the crowd and their skepticism over recent good news as they look for a “black swan” event. Gary Alexander examines the coronavirus scare vs. past scares and “normal” flu deaths, while comparing “viral news” to these medical crises. Ivan Martchev is concerned about coronavirus pushing the price of oil up and bond yields down, and Jason Bodner says this correction was too short to play, so he examines when the next correction may come.
A Look Ahead
By Louis Navellier
The Good Economic News Keeps Rolling In
Income Mail
By Bryan Perry
Good Tidings for the Average U.S. Household
Growth Mail
By Gary Alexander
Will the Coronavirus Infect This Bull Market?
Global Mail
By Ivan Martchev
New Lows Coming for Crude Oil?
Sector Spotlight
By Jason Bodner
The 5% Correction Was Over in a Flash - What's Next?
Friday's Decline Began with Brexit, then Fell Further on Virus Fears
Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 02/04/2020
source: www.gcaptain.com
The market closed January with mixed results. Thanks to Friday’s 603-point decline, the Dow dropped 2.53%, while NASDAQ gained 1.99%. The S&P 500 was flat (a -0.16% decline), gaining 3% in the first half of the month, then losing those gains in the second half. Some big flagship stocks reported better-than-expected sales and earnings last week, including Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla. This is good for the stock market. Facebook also reported market-beating results, but many analysts did not like its guidance.
Navellier & Associates owns AAPL, MSFT, and FB, in some managed accounts and or sub-advised mutual fund but does not own TSLA. Louis Navellier and his family own AAPL in personal accounts and but they do not own TSLA, MSFT, or FB.
I’ll have more on Tesla later, but the big news last week was the continuing collapse of interest rates that briefly caused the Treasury yield curve to invert. This interest rate collapse began in continental Europe, which is still smarting from Brexit finally happening – as well as a lack of confidence in the European Central Bank (ECB). Furthermore, as coronavirus fears have spread, emerging markets took a big hit.
Here is a link to my podcast on coronavirus. Then, on Friday, I recorded a second podcast. In addition, our other analysts cover other angles: Bryan Perrylooks at the latest bond yield decline to examine three high-tech REITs for dividend growth and capital appreciation. Gary Alexander takes a long-term view of peace and prosperity since World II, showing how peace (not war) clearly boosts markets more. Ivan Martchev is watching the price of oil, copper, and other industrial commodities for clues to China’s fate, while Jason Bodner called this correction a month ago and is now examining the optimum re-entry point.
A Look Ahead
By Louis Navellier
A Deeper Dive into Tesla's Quarterly Report
Income Mail
By Bryan Perry
High-Tech Income Looks Terrific Right Now
Growth Mail
By Gary Alexander
Ending the Scourge of the Four Horsemen
Global Mail
By Ivan Martchev
A Viral Gift for the China Bears
Sector Spotlight
By Jason Bodner
The Much-Awaited Pullback Has Arrived
China's New Virus Hits Oil Prices, Travel, and the Stock Market
Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 01/28/2020
source: www.thenewhumanitarian.org
Crude oil prices collapsed, and international travel and commerce have slowed dramatically due to fears of the Coronavirus emanating from China. China is sensitive to criticism and slow to release new information on the outbreak, so expect the numbers to rise. Wuhan and at least 14 other cities in China’s Hubei province (with approximately 58 million people) are under lockdown in an attempt to contain the virus. Even Disneyland in Shanghai is closed down.
China’s slow reaction and initial cover-up of the SARS outbreak in 2002 and 2003 was widely criticized by world health experts, so China is trying to be much more proactive this time around, but be aware that the market has recovered from bird flu, swine flu, SARS, Ebola, and Mad Cow scares in the last 30 years.
I also want to draw your attention to my associates’ views of the Friday correction related to the virus emerging from China, beginning with Bryan Perry’s look at some strong stocks and those at risk. Gary Alexander takes a longer view (as usual) of employment, in anticipation of next week’s jobs report. Ivan Martchev takes a look at sinking Treasury yields resulting from the scare. Jason Bodner has anticipated a correction for several weeks now, so he examines whether this is the opening shot or just a warning.
A Look Ahead
By Louis Navellier
President Trump was America's "Cheerleader in Chief" at Davos
Income Mail
By Bryan Perry
Finally - The Pause That Refreshes
Growth Mail
By Gary Alexander
America Absorbed Three Huge Waves of New Workers in The Last 60 Years
Global Mail
By Ivan Martchev
Assessing the Coronavirus Panic's Impact on the Market
Sector Spotlight
By Jason Bodner
Is This the First Shot of the Long-Awaited Correction?
What Could Go Wrong (More Likely) Right in 2020
Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 01/07/2020
The market rose strongly on the first day of the year then corrected on Friday, giving us a reality check real fast, so I thought I would use my column (later in this issue) to explain what could possibly go wrong in the upcoming months before I remind you why I remain bullish in my outlook for all of 2020.
First, some hopeful early benchmarks: Trading volume typically surges in January due to new pension funding. Second, positive analyst upgrades are common in the New Year after they get back from their skiing vacations. Third, I expect wave after wave of positive 2020 guidance from companies after they announce their fourth quarter results, since year-over-year comparisons for 2020 are expected to be much more favorable than 2019 vs. 2018 comparisons. Fourth, I expect that the impeachment distraction will fizzle out in time. Finally, I expect an unusually upbeat State of the Union speech from our “Cheerleader in Chief” in early February, citing record holiday sales, record low unemployment, a likely return of 3% GDP growth, higher personal and household income, as well as continued peace and prosperity at home.
Later on, I’ll imagine what could go wrong in 2020, but for now let’s hear from our other columnists.
Bryan Perry examines what the Phase 1 China deal means, and why President Trump might delay Phase 2. Gary Alexander looks back at 2019 (and 1920) and debunks yet another doomsday theory foreseeing an extended bear market starting soon. Ivan Martchev examines the possible impact of the drone strike on financial markets. Jason Bodner discusses the folly of seasonal rules and traditions in place of what the market is telling us. Then I give you my outlook for 2020, pro and con, and a fresh look at energy stocks.
Income Mail: U.S. Trade with China Will Be the 2020 Story – Again
By Bryan Perry
Big Potholes in China’s 2020 Structural Road
Growth Mail: Ending a Banner Year and Squinting Ahead with 2020 Vision
By Gary Alexander
The Roaring 20s Revisited
Global Mail: The Unintended Consequences of a Predator Drone Strike
By Ivan Martchev
Implications for the Financial Markets
Sector Spotlight: New Year’s Days (and Most Monthly Indicators) Are Meaningless
By Jason Bodner
What Big Capital is Telling Us Now
A Look Ahead: What Could Go Wrong and (More Likely) Right in 2020
By Louis Navellier
Energy Stocks Might Rise and “Revert to the Mean” This Year