Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 01/07/2020
The market rose strongly on the first day of the year then corrected on Friday, giving us a reality check real fast, so I thought I would use my column (later in this issue) to explain what could possibly go wrong in the upcoming months before I remind you why I remain bullish in my outlook for all of 2020.
First, some hopeful early benchmarks: Trading volume typically surges in January due to new pension funding. Second, positive analyst upgrades are common in the New Year after they get back from their skiing vacations. Third, I expect wave after wave of positive 2020 guidance from companies after they announce their fourth quarter results, since year-over-year comparisons for 2020 are expected to be much more favorable than 2019 vs. 2018 comparisons. Fourth, I expect that the impeachment distraction will fizzle out in time. Finally, I expect an unusually upbeat State of the Union speech from our “Cheerleader in Chief” in early February, citing record holiday sales, record low unemployment, a likely return of 3% GDP growth, higher personal and household income, as well as continued peace and prosperity at home.
Later on, I’ll imagine what could go wrong in 2020, but for now let’s hear from our other columnists.
Bryan Perry examines what the Phase 1 China deal means, and why President Trump might delay Phase 2. Gary Alexander looks back at 2019 (and 1920) and debunks yet another doomsday theory foreseeing an extended bear market starting soon. Ivan Martchev examines the possible impact of the drone strike on financial markets. Jason Bodner discusses the folly of seasonal rules and traditions in place of what the market is telling us. Then I give you my outlook for 2020, pro and con, and a fresh look at energy stocks.
Income Mail: U.S. Trade with China Will Be the 2020 Story – Again
By Bryan Perry
Big Potholes in China’s 2020 Structural Road
Growth Mail: Ending a Banner Year and Squinting Ahead with 2020 Vision
By Gary Alexander
The Roaring 20s Revisited
Global Mail: The Unintended Consequences of a Predator Drone Strike
By Ivan Martchev
Implications for the Financial Markets
Sector Spotlight: New Year’s Days (and Most Monthly Indicators) Are Meaningless
By Jason Bodner
What Big Capital is Telling Us Now
A Look Ahead: What Could Go Wrong and (More Likely) Right in 2020
By Louis Navellier
Energy Stocks Might Rise and “Revert to the Mean” This Year